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Major oil producers have an opportunity to ease market volatility …
Global oil supply rose in January, but not enough to balance growing demand. Chronic underperformance by the OPEC+ group of oil producing countries in meeting their output targets, coupled with geopolitical tensions, has pushed oil prices to their highest levels in more than seven years in recent weeks. 
   
The February edition of our monthly Oil Market Report notes that if the persistent gap between OPEC+ countries’ output and their target levels continues, market tensions will rise, increasing the likelihood of more volatility and upward pressure on prices. But these risks, which have broad economic implications, could be reduced if producers in the Middle East with spare capacity were to compensate for those running out. 
 
More broadly, it is clear the world is not investing enough to meet its future energy needs. Clean energy and energy efficiency investments need to increase dramatically to reduce the use of oil. In the absence of that, oil demand will continue to rise. 
 
Read the highlights and overview from the report.
… while the energy sector should take further action to address methane emissions
One area where the oil and gas sector needs to take greater action is in reducing methane emissions from its operations. Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, and the energy sector accounts for over 40% of methane emissions from human activity. 
 
On Wednesday, we will launch our expanded Global Methane Tracker, providing a full set of country-by-country estimates on where oil, gas and coal emissions are coming from, and how to reduce them. The analysis and data will be available to explore for free on our website from Wednesday, and you can tune into the livestreamed launch event with our Executive Director Fatih Birol and Chief Energy Economist Tim Gould at 11am Paris time.
Colombian President visits IEA headquarters to discuss progress towards membership
Colombian President Iván Duque visited our headquarters in Paris on 10 February, meeting with Dr Birol to discuss Colombia's advances in clean energy and its progress towards becoming an IEA member country. President Duque said he wanted Colombia’s accession to the IEA to be a lasting legacy from his government. 
 
President Duque and Dr Birol spoke about Colombia’s progress in modernising its energy sector, including the development of wind, solar and geothermal power. They also discussed how to soften the impact of energy transitions in Colombia's coal producing regions, as well as the latest developments in hydrogen and nuclear technology. 
 
The President invited Dr Birol to visit Colombia in June, when the country’s largest-ever wind power plant will be inaugurated.
Younger generations will need to have far smaller carbon footprints than their parents
Babies born today will produce 10 times less carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during their lifetimes than their grandparents if the world achieves the goal of reducing global emissions to net zero by 2050, according to our recent commentary.  
 
In our Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, a person born in the 1950s would emit 350 tonnes of CO2 in their lifetime while babies born in the 2020s would on average produce a mere 34 tonnes. Countries with historically high per capita emissions need to achieve much larger generational reductions. In our Net Zero Scenario, the lifetime CO2 footprints of individuals born in the United States or the European Union in the 1950s will be around 15 times greater than the footprints of their descendants born in the 2020s, whereas the figure for China is four times and India 3.5 times. 
 
Published just ahead of the Youth Environment Assembly meeting in Nairobi, the commentary – by Chief Energy Modeller Laura Cozzi, Junior Energy Modeller Olivia Chen and Junior Analyst Hyeji Kim – highlights the importance of including the voices of young people in decision-making processes on energy and climate issues.  
 
Earlier this month, our Executive Director met with two young climate activists – Luisa Neubauer of Germany and Dominika Lasota of Poland – at the IEA headquarters in Paris. After the meeting, Dr Birol highlighted on Twitter that the voices of younger generations “must be heard.”
Executive Director meets Egyptian leaders in Cairo, highlighting deepening ties
Dr Birol visited Cairo on 14 February, delivering an opening keynote speech at the EGYPS 2022 international energy conference to a high-level audience including President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and a range of leading figures from governments and global organisations. The visit came at an important time for energy and climate issues in Egypt, which will host the COP27 Climate Change Conference in November and recently submitted a formal request to become an IEA Association country.  
 
Dr Birol highlighted several notable recent achievements in the Egyptian energy sector, including reforms to subsidies that have helped unlock private and international investment, and launch an ambitious renewable energy programme. The address also focused on the need to channel more clean energy investments to Africa.  
 
While in Cairo, Dr Birol held bilateral meetings with several Egyptian Government Ministers, including Minister of Petroleum Tarek El-Molla, Minister of Electricity & Renewable Energy Mohamed Shaker El-Markabi, and Minister of Environment Yasmine Fouad – as well as with Israel’s Minister of Energy Karine Elharrar.  
 
Read the article summarising his visit.
IEA Ministerial Meeting in March to set agenda for coming years
Energy and climate ministers from our member countries meet every two years to review the global situation and set the IEA's mandate for the years ahead. They will next gather on 23 and 24 March in Paris, with US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm as the Chair.  
 
The meeting comes at a critical time, with many energy markets experiencing severe bouts of volatility, CO2 emissions rebounding and clean energy investment lagging. Governments are seeking to implement the commitments they made at the COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow aimed at reducing emissions – and several countries are pursuing IEA membership or association status.  
 
The Ministerial Meeting’s three Vice Chairs are Angus Taylor, Australia’s Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction; Tinne Van der Straeten, Belgium’s Minister of Energy; and Dan Jørgensen, Denmark’s Minister of Climate, Energy and Utilities. Ministers from the IEA family of countries will gather during the two-day event along with leaders from industry, finance and civil society.
In other news....
We just updated the data in our interactive Weather for Energy Tracker, which offers weather-related data that's vital to understanding & analysing the energy sector. Try out the online tool to explore billions of freely downloadable data points through December 2021. 
 
We teamed up with Brazil's Energy Research Office EPE to present this report showing how the country's extensive freight sector has numerous opportunities to use energy more efficiently, reduce CO2 emissions and improve air quality by taking steps such as replacing older trucks, improving fuel economy, and investing in roads and rail. It is the latest collaboration with EPE following previous reports on the country's pulp and paper sector and its cement industry. 
ENERGY SNAPSHOT
In the IEA scenario where the world manages to reach net zero emissions by 2050, the average person born in the 1950s would emit 350 tonnes of CO2 over their lifetime, according to our recent commentary. Babies born in the 2020s would emit on average a mere 34 tonnes of CO2 each in the net zero scenario. In other words, the average Baby Boomer – defined by the Pew Center as individuals born between 1950 and 1964 – would emit 10 times more in their lifetime than the average member of Generation Alpha, which refers to those born today or in the coming years. Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012, would average 110 tonnes of CO2 over their lifetimes if the world manages to reach net zero by 2050.
WHAT WE'RE READING
COMING UP
  • 23 February: Global Methane Tracker 2022
  • 16 March: Oil 2022
  • 23-24 March: IEA Ministerial Meeting
  • 5 April: Update of the Sustainable Recovery Tracker
  • 29 April: Global EV Outlook 2022
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