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Newsletter of the International Energy Agency
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Welcome back to The Energy Mix. In today's edition: New analysis on oil market trends; our Executive Director on ‘the forgotten giant of electricity’; the impact of new export controls on critical minerals; financing universal electricity access in Africa; discussing energy issues with the King of Spain; Southeast Asia in focus as energy leaders gather in Singapore; our 2025 Energy Innovation Forum this week; and more.
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As oil market surplus keeps rising, something has got to give
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The global oil market may be at a tipping point as signs of a significant supply glut have become increasingly apparent, according to the October edition of our monthly Oil Market Report.
For well over a year, our Oil Market Reports have been highlighting that global trends were moving the world towards a considerable surplus of oil supply over demand. This has been borne out by the data, with the October report showing that the overall oil surplus averaged 1.9 million barrels per day from January through September 2025.
Recently, supplies from the Middle East and the Americas have surged, leading the amount of oil that is being transported or stored on the water to its highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, demand is set to remain tepid in 2025 and 2026, increasing by about 700,000 barrels per day in both years.
These trends point to an untenable surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026 – making it increasingly clear that something in markets must give, as Toril Bosoni, Head of our Oil Industry and Markets Division, wrote in a commentary that accompanied the market report. The announcement last week of new sanctions on major Russian oil companies adds further complexity to the situation.
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With new export controls on critical minerals, supply concentration risks become reality
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In today's tense geopolitical environment, critical minerals have risen rapidly up the policy agenda as a cornerstone of energy and economic security. These minerals are not only crucial for energy technologies, but also play a vital role in high-tech industries, aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing – making them central to both energy security and broader economic resilience.
The IEA has long warned about the risks of highly concentrated critical mineral supplies, especially in processing and refining. Our Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 showed that, for a remarkable 19 out of 20 important strategic minerals, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of 70%. And this concentration has only intensified in recent years.
Reliance on a small number of suppliers increases vulnerability to shocks and disruptions, be they from extreme weather, technical failures or trade disruptions. This is no longer just a theoretical concern: there has been a proliferation of export controls on key materials and technologies in recent years. New restrictions on rare earth elements and lithium-ion battery supply chains, which China imposed earlier this month, underscore once again the vulnerabilities and risks.
Find out more in our new commentary, which explores these restrictions and their potential far-reaching consequences, highlighting the IEA’s role helping countries strengthen resilience against disruptions and promoting supply diversification. And read our Executive Director’s recent interview with leading Canadian newspaper the Globe and Mail on critical minerals security issues ahead of a meeting of G7 ministers in Toronto this week. We also have a wealth of critical minerals data available in our Critical Minerals Data Explorer. |
To keep up with our very latest news and analysis, follow the IEA on social media ( LinkedIn, X) as well as our Executive Director Fatih Birol ( LinkedIn, X) |
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The need for renewed attention to hydropower, the ‘forgotten giant of electricity’
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Our Executive Director Fatih Birol has highlighted the need for policy makers around the world to focus more attention on hydropower, which he calls “the forgotten giant of electricity” in a new article.
Hydro is the third largest source of power generation worldwide after coal and natural gas. Last year, it generated as much electricity worldwide as solar and wind combined – and 50% more than nuclear power. Nonetheless, hydro is frequently an afterthought in global energy policy discussions. Dr Birol writes that as “decision-makers around the world contend with how to meet renewed strong growth in electricity consumption,” it is “high time to give hydropower the attention it deserves.”
A dispatchable low-emissions source of electricity, hydropower has unmatched capabilities when it comes to flexibility. Hydro resources are also a significant source of electricity storage, with the current capacity to hold 30 times more power than batteries. As a result, they can play a big role in ensuring electricity security in advanced economies – and in expanding electricity access and supporting economic growth in developing economies, where there is significant untapped hydro potential.
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A financial pathway for delivering universal electricity access in Africa
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Insufficient capital is a key obstacle to expanding electricity access for the roughly 600 million people in Africa who currently live without it, according to our new report, which outlines essential tools for unlocking greater investment and eliminating the access gap.
Financing Electricity Access in Africa finds that with progress on expanding electricity access in Africa stalling, $150 billion in investment is needed to deliver universal access within the next decade – or about $15 billion per year. According to new IEA tracking, less than $2.5 billion was committed for new electricity access connections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023. While that is a quarter more than was committed in 2019, it still lags far behind what would be required to provide universal access by 2035.
The report finds that despite a challenging backdrop, universal access to electricity across sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved within this timeframe with the right enabling conditions and strong action by governments, the private sector and development finance institutions.
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Tune in to the 2025 edition of our Energy Innovation Forum this week
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This week, we're co-hosting the 2025 edition of our Energy Innovation Forum in partnership with the Government of Canada. The event – which will be livestreamed on our website – will take place on Wednesday in Toronto ahead of the G7 Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting.
For five decades, the IEA has been cooperating with international experts to inform the energy technology agenda and convene decision-makers, advising governments all around the world.
This work has never been as important as it is today, with innovation required to play a critical role in enabling more secure and sustainable energy systems.
Our 2025 Energy Innovation Forum aims to identify key opportunities and risks facing energy technology innovation – helping senior decision-makers decide what to prioritise while highlighting the importance of international cooperation. Follow the event live online, and read our recent report on The State of Energy Innovation for our latest analysis.
We also published two commentaries today on key innovation topics that will be on the agenda. They look at how innovation can help drive down the cost of carbon removal and the ways in which innovation supports efforts to secure future battery markets and mineral supplies.
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Executive Director discusses key energy issues with King of Spain
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Our Executive Director had a private audience with King Felipe VI of Spain last week during which they had comprehensive discussion that covered a wide range of global energy, economic and climate issues.
The meeting took place in the city of Burgos during the Congreso Nacional de la Empresa Familiar, a major Spanish economic conference attended by many of the country’s political and business leaders. The King officially opened the conference, and Dr Birol delivered a key address that encompassed international energy market dynamics, critical minerals, energy security challenges and climate change.
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Southeast Asia’s growing global energy role in focus as leading figures gather in Singapore
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This week is Singapore International Energy Week, which marks the anniversary of the inauguration of our Regional Cooperation Centre, the first IEA office outside our Paris headquarters. Our Executive Director and other senior IEA figures will be taking part, including in the Singapore-IEA Forum.
In the latest episode of our Everything Energy podcast, the Head of our Regional Cooperation Centre in Singapore Sue-Ern Tan discusses how the Southeast Asia’s dynamic economies, which are increasingly influencing global trends, can meet their surging energy demand while also playing a growing role in supply chains for energy technologies.
Find out more about the podcast, available now available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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Our Executive Director was in Copenhagen last week for several meetings with decision-makers from government and the private sector. These included a bilateral meeting with Denmark’s Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities Lars Aagaard in which they discussed key energy markets trends in Denmark, Europe and worldwide – as well as the upcoming 2026 IEA Ministerial Meeting.
Dr Birol recently hosted former Prime Minister of France and Chair of the Circle of COP Presidents Laurent Fabius at our headquarters in Paris. They discussed a number of global energy, economic and climate topics.
We recently published new analysis on safeguarding Ukraine’s energy security through the coming winter, highlighting vulnerabilities as Russian attacks on energy infrastructure grow in scale and sophistication. Drawing on findings from the most recent IEA visit to Kyiv earlier this month, the report recommends key steps to ensure reliable access to electricity and heating as temperatures fall. Read the report.
Earlier this month, we held an Africa Energy Efficiency Policy Training Week in Accra, Ghana, that brought together policy makers and energy professionals from nearly 20 countries across the continent. Co-hosted by Ghana's Ministry of Energy and Green Transition – and with support from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the African Union Energy Commission (AFREC) – it marked a key milestone in our growing work on energy efficiency with African countries. Learn more.
As countries, companies and industries in many parts of the world look to reduce their emissions, transition finance can play an important role, mobilising the capital needed for energy projects that support these ambitions. Our new report, Scaling Up Transition Finance, examines the potential for expanding the use of this financing mechanism. Find out more.
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Hydro is the third largest source of power globally. Despite this, hydropower does not always get the attention it deserves in global energy policy discussions. Read more from our Executive Director on the major benefits associated with hydro in both advanced and developing economies – and what steps should be taken to support its continued use and uptake. |
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WHAT WE'RE READING & WATCHING:
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