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Newsletter of the International Energy Agency
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Welcome back to The Energy Mix. In today's edition: How the key drivers of global oil supply and demand are shifting; a wake-up call on critical minerals supplies; our new online observatory tracking the links between energy and AI; discussing Africa’s energy future; an update on global energy access trends; a new podcast episode on energy investment; and more.
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New uncertainties lie ahead for oil markets
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Amid geopolitical tensions and heightened uncertainty over global economic prospects, oil markets are undergoing significant changes as the key drivers of supply and demand growth of the past 15 years start to ease, according to the latest edition of our medium-term outlook.
The report, Oil 2025, highlights several important trends that could considerably reshape global oil markets in the years ahead. According to the report, China – which has driven the growth in global oil demand for well over a decade – is set to see its consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the restructuring of its economy. At the same time, US oil supply is now expected to grow at a slower pace as companies scale back spending and focus on capital discipline. Still, among non-OPEC countries, the United States is set to remain the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth in the coming years.
In this context, global oil demand is forecast to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2024 and 2030, reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade. At the same time, global oil production capacity is expected to rise by more than 5 mb/d to 114.7 mb/d by 2030.
For more key takeaways, read our news article and the full report. You can also watch the launch event with our Executive Director Fatih Birol and the head of our Oil Industry and Markets Division Toril Bosoni, who discuss the report's main findings.
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A wake-up call on the importance of critical minerals for energy and economic security
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Constraints on supplies of the critical minerals that go into a wide range of energy technologies – and also play vital roles in the high-tech, aerospace and advanced manufacturing sectors – should serve as a wake-up call on energy security, our Executive Director warns in a new opinion article published by the Financial Times.
The rapid growth of these technologies, combined with countries’ ambitions to expand domestic manufacturing, has focused attention on where the minerals vital for their production are mined and, more importantly, refined. And from an energy security perspective, the picture is not reassuring, Dr Birol writes.
Supplies of the six major energy-related critical minerals – copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths – are becoming less and less diversified. Since we published our landmark study on critical minerals in the clean energy transition four years ago, the average market share of the top three producers has risen to nearly 90%. And the imbalance is even more striking when you look at a broader set of energy-related minerals also used in sectors such as aerospace, defence and microchips. For 19 out of 20 of strategic minerals, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of 70%.
Left to their own devices, Dr Birol says, markets will not deliver the level of diversification and growth that would significantly reduce supply security risks.
At the IEA, we are intensifying efforts under our Voluntary Critical Minerals Security Programme to support countries in strengthening resilience against potential supply disruptions and advancing supply diversification. We held the programme’s first stockpiling workshop in June and plan to conduct additional activities in the second half of this year to foster diversified supply chains and enhance emergency preparedness.
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To keep up with our very latest news and analysis, follow the IEA on social media ( LinkedIn, X) as well as our Executive Director Fatih Birol ( LinkedIn, X) |
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As energy and AI links grow, new IEA observatory provides latest data and analysis
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With artificial intelligence boosting global electricity demand from data centres and increasingly transforming how the energy sector works, we recently launched a new Energy and AI Observatory to closely monitor and analyse the interconnections between the energy sector and this fast-evolving technology.
The Observatory follows the publication of our groundbreaking special report, Energy and AI. It includes new interactive tools to explore data centre electricity consumption and digital infrastructure by region, helping to visualise these valuable datasets and ensure they are accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. It also features 20 case studies that show how AI is being deployed across the energy sector, showcasing current best practices.
The Observatory was first announced by Dr Birol at the AI Action Summit co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Paris in February. It aims to inform national and international policymaking on energy and AI topics, including ongoing dialogues between government and industry organised by Canada’s G7 Presidency.
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Ambassadors from countries across Africa meet in Paris to discuss key energy issues
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Dr Birol and Ambassador Nkosinathi Emmanuel Mthethwa of South Africa recently convened ambassadors and senior diplomats from countries across Africa to discuss priority issues for the continent's energy sector, including clean cooking, critical mineral value chains, and cooperation under South Africa’s G20 Presidency.
The meeting in Paris brought together 15 delegations from across the African continent, representing countries that together account for around 60% of Africa’s total energy supply.
We updated the delegations on our forthcoming clean cooking report tracking the $2.2 billion in financial pledges made during the Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa, which took place in May 2024, and countries discussed progress on scaling up access to clean cooking over the past year.
Participants also spoke about the substantial energy opportunities they currently see in their countries, which cover a vast and diverse array of energy resources. Find out more in our news article on the meeting.
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Access to energy is improving worldwide, but international financial support is still needed
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Each year, the IEA and our partners publish a report tracking progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, which calls for ensuring “access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all” by 2030. The latest edition of the report, published last week, finds that 666 million people remain without electricity access globally, and that the current rate of annual improvement is insufficient to achieve universal access by the end of this decade.
The report underscores the role that distributed energy technologies, such as mini-grids and off-grid solar systems, can play in accelerating electricity access for people living in remote and fragile areas. Decentralised solutions, including LPG, are also needed to increase access to clean cooking. Over 2 billion people worldwide remain dependent on polluting and hazardous fuels such as firewood and charcoal for their cooking needs.
And while the report identified causes for optimism – international financial flows to developing economies in support of clean energy grew for the third year in a row, for example – it also found that regional disparities persist, indicating that targeted support is needed in key regions such as sub-Saharan Africa.
Read the press release and explore the full report. And stay tuned for our upcoming special report which tracks how we’ve progressed since the Summit for Clean Cooking in Africa and how to accelerate progress, which will be released in July.
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New episode of Everything Energy podcast tracks where the money is going in the energy world
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A new episode of our Everything Energy podcast explores the shifting landscape of global energy investment, which is set to rise to a record $3.3 trillion in 2025 against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
In the episode, which is now available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, we hear from Cecilia Tam, the head of our Energy Investment Unit. Her team recently produced the 10th edition of our annual World Energy Investment report, the definitive guide to where money is going in the global energy sector. She discusses the report’s key themes, including how energy security concerns are driving investment decisions, China’s position as the world’s single largest investor in energy, and what the major changes in energy investment trends have been over the past decade.
You can listen to other recent episodes on topics such as EVs, energy and AI, nuclear power and geothermal energy here. |
Heightened international attention surrounding the blackout across the Iberian Peninsula in April has brought to electricity security issues to the fore – offering an opportunity to highlight some key pillars of security and resilience as power systems evolve. Learn more in our recent commentary.
Our Executive Director recently hosted the Executive Committee of the Arab Energy Club at our headquarters in Paris. They discussed recent oil market developments and the implications of the security situation in the Middle East and beyond, as well as the IEA's role in supporting energy security.
At the request of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, we recently produced analysis assessing the emissions from global LNG supply and the opportunities to reduce them. The analysis was presented by our Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori at the 2025 LNG Producer-Consumer Conference in Japan, an annual event co-organised by the Japanese Ministry and the IEA. Read the report.
In a new commentary, our analysts examine the evolving role of export credit agencies in global energy finance. These agencies are rarely included in energy and climate finance tracking or policy discussions. But as the need for energy investment grows, the scale of spending required has brought renewed attention to all potential sources of capital. Read the commentary.
Buildings account for more than half of Moldova’s final energy consumption, with three-quarters of that used for space and water heating. At the same time, Moldova lacks domestic hydrocarbon resources and imports more than 80% of its primary energy. Heat pump technology offers Moldova an effective means of meeting some its key energy goals. Find out more in our new report.
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Oil market trends over the past decade have been largely dictated by two key actors. As a result of the shale revolution, the United States has accounted for 90% of global oil supply growth worldwide, while 60% of the rise in global demand has come from China. But these dynamics are now shifting. Learn more in our Oil 2025 medium-term outlook. |
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WHAT WE'RE READING & WATCHING:
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11 July: Oil Market Report
Mid-July: Special Report on Clean Cooking Access in Africa
22 July: Gas Market Report
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