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Newsletter of the International Energy Agency
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Welcome back to The Energy Mix. In today's edition: The key findings from our Renewables 2025 report; high-level discussions on energy infrastructure resilience; our contributions to South Africa’s G20 Presidency; new analysis on electricity access trends; grids and investment in Southeast Asia; leaders of Belgium and Portugal honour our Executive Director; and more.
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Global renewable energy capacity is set to grow strongly to 2030
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Renewable sources of electricity generation continue to expand strongly around the world, with global capacity expected to more than double by 2030, according to our latest medium-term forecast.
Renewables 2025, our main annual report on the sector, sees global renewable power capacity increasing by 4,600 gigawatts by 2030 – roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s total power generation capacity combined. Solar PV will account for around 80% of the global increase in renewable power capacity over the next five years – driven by low costs and faster permitting timeframes – followed by wind, hydro, bioenergy and geothermal.
The global expansion of renewables is taking place in a context of supply chain strains, grid integration challenges, financial pressures and policy shifts. The report’s outlook for global renewable capacity growth is revised downward slightly compared with last year, mainly due to policy changes in the United States and in China.
These adjustments are partly offset by buoyancy in other regions – particularly India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies. There, growth prospects have been revised upward due to ambitious new policies, expanded auction volumes, faster permitting and rising deployment of rooftop solar. In addition to established markets, renewable capacity is forecast to expand rapidly, led by solar PV, in economies such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Southeast Asia.
Global supply chains for solar PV and rare earth elements used in wind turbines remain heavily concentrated in China, underscoring ongoing risks to supply chain security. At the same time, the rapid rise of variable renewables is placing increasing pressure on electricity systems, according to the report – signalling the need for urgent investment in grids, storage and flexible generation.
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Energy ministers discuss how to strengthen energy infrastructure resilience at high-level roundtable
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We recently convened a high-level roundtable at our Paris headquarters focused on strengthening energy infrastructure resilience and international cooperation in the face of extreme weather events, cyberattacks, and other shocks and strains. The event was attended by ministers and senior government officials from countries around the world, as well as representatives from regulators, insurers, investors, the private sector, academia and civil society.
The roundtable featured opening remarks by our Executive Director and a special address by Laurent Fabius, former Prime Minister of France and Chair of the Circle of COP Presidents. Norway’s Minister of Energy Terje Aasland, Lithuania’s Minister of Energy Žygimantas Vaičiūnas, and the Netherlands’ Vice Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy Michel Heijdra delivered keynote remarks. Learn more in our news item.
Energy security is the founding principle of the IEA’s mission. On top of longstanding risks such as potential disruptions to oil and gas supplies, other energy security concerns have emerged and risen in prominence, including critical mineral supply chains, electricity system reliability and energy infrastructure resilience. These challenges were in focus at the Future of Energy Security Summit we co-hosted with the UK government earlier this year, and we continue to regularly gather decision-makers to discuss pathways forward.
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To keep up with our very latest news and analysis, follow the IEA on social media ( LinkedIn, X) as well as our Executive Director Fatih Birol ( LinkedIn, X) |
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Working with South Africa on G20 energy priorities
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We have been working closely with South Africa's G20 Presidency this year to support discussions on key international energy issues. Last week, our Deputy Executive Director Mary Burce Warlick travelled to Durban for the G20 Energy Transitions Ministerial Meeting, where she addressed Ministers and met with energy leaders from around the world. We also published several new reports to support the energy priorities that South Africa's Presidency has laid out – including energy security, affordability, reliable access, and interconnectivity across Africa.
In Durban, Ms Warlick addressed ministers, highlighting the IEA’s work on efforts to expand electricity and clean cooking access and to help African economies move up the energy value chain. She also co-chaired with South Africa's Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa a meeting of the Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions where participants discussed how governments can ensure energy policies are fair and inclusive and how to track progress on this. The meeting coincided with the release of an Indicators Handbook. We also released a booklet on Best Practices on Regional Power System Interconnectivity.
During her visit, Ms Warlick discussed a range of energy issues in bilateral meetings with African Union Commissioner Lerato Mataboge; India’s Minister of Power Manohar Lal Khattar; the Netherlands’ Deputy Prime Minister Sophie Hermans, who is chairing the 2026 IEA Ministerial Meeting; Norway’s State Secretary Astrid Bergmål; South Africa's Deputy Minister of Electricity and Energy Samantha Graham-Maré; and Singapore's Minister of State Gan Siow Huang. For more on these meetings, take a look at Ms Warlick’s updates on X.
Our Deputy Executive Director also addressed leaders at the G20 Nuclear Energy Ministerial convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency where she noted IEA analysis showing nuclear energy is making a comeback and can contribute to secure and sustainable power in the countries that opt to use it.
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Access to electricity stagnates, leaving over 700 million people in the dark
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Our latest data shows that 730 million people worldwide still lacked access to electricity in 2024. This was a decline of only 11 million from 2023 – slower than the annual progress achieved before the pandemic, according to a new commentary by our analysts.
In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa – which is home to eight out of ten people globally without electricity – population growth continues to outpace electrification. As a result, the number of people without access to electricity has remained largely unchanged since 2020.
Preliminary data for 2025 suggests the trend will continue, as headwinds persist from high debt burdens, elevated borrowing costs and falling development finance. Nevertheless, policy momentum is building. Based on our detailed tracking of energy access policies, around 60% of people without access live in countries that advanced new electricity access measures in 2024 and early 2025.
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Meeting Southeast Asia’s fast-growing electricity demand securely
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Two new commentaries focus on Southeast Asia – a dynamic region that has emerged as a key driver of global energy trends and is home to the IEA's first Regional Cooperation Centre.
One commentary looks at what would be needed to realise the ASEAN Power Grid, a regional initiative that aims to interconnect national power systems to meet Southeast Asia’s fast-growing electricity demand, strengthen energy security and support the energy transition goals of countries in the region.
The commentary notes that while there are signs of growing momentum, progress has been slowed by coordination challenges rooted in regulatory and institutional differences, limited resources, and sovereignty concerns. Overcoming these barriers will require strategic collaboration, which the IEA, in close partnership with ASEAN stakeholders, the ASEAN Centre of Energy, and other institutions, is working to facilitate.
Another new commentary looks at the latest data on the cost of capital for energy projects across Southeast Asia, based on expanded coverage of the region in the latest update of our Cost of Capital Observatory. It finds that the high cost of capital and a limited project pipeline are hindering clean energy investment, which lags behind the region’s announced targets.
For more details on why Southeast Asia is so important to the world's energy future, stay tuned for the next episode of our Everything Energy podcast, which will feature a conversation with Regional Cooperation Centre Head Sue-Ern Tan.
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Executive Director honoured by Belgium and Portugal for global energy leadership
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In recent ceremonies in Brussels and Lisbon, Dr Birol received two of the highest national honours in recognition of his decades-long contributions to international energy cooperation.
At the Royal Palace in Brussels, King Philippe of Belgium named Dr Birol a Grand Officer in the Order of Leopold, citing his tireless efforts to support Belgium and the global community on key energy issues. In particular, the King highlighted Dr Birol’s leadership in efforts to expand access to electricity and clean cooking across Africa. The special ceremony was attended by numerous high-level guests, including Count Étienne Davignon, one of the founders of the IEA and the first Chair of its Governing Board. Learn more in our news item.
In Lisbon, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa of Portugal awarded Dr Birol the Grand Collar of the Order of Prince Henry for his outstanding work on energy security and transitions. During his visit, Dr Birol also met with Portugal’s Environment and Energy Minister Maria da Graça Carvalho and delivered a keynote address at the 25th anniversary of Adene, Portugal’s national energy agency, commending the country’s achievements in diversifying its energy mix and reducing emissions while ensuring electricity prices remained affordable. Read more.
Dr Birol dedicated both honours to his IEA colleagues, emphasising that the recognition reflects their outstanding work.
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Executives discuss latest energy market developments at IEA Energy Business Council
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Earlier this month, we brought together some 60 executives from companies around the world for a meeting of our Energy Business Council, which featured discussions on some of the most pressing global energy topics, including oil and gas market dynamics, critical mineral supply chains, renewable energy trends, the rapid growth in electricity demand, and more.
The Energy Business Council is our main platform for dialogue with the private sector. It meets regularly to facilitate the exchange of data, insights and expertise, supporting our wider analysis and recommendations for advancing secure, reliable, affordable and sustainable energy systems.
The meeting was opened by our Executive Director, with the three main sessions covering the situation in global energy markets; oil and gas field decline rates and the implications for global energy balances and investment needs; and the future of electricity in the Middle East and North Africa.
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About 70 energy sector experts from around the world also recently gathered at our headquarters in Paris for the 7th Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks. The Symposium has been organised regularly since 2012 by the IEA, the International Energy Forum and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The event brought together representatives from the energy industry, international institutions, governments and academia to review developments in global natural gas and coal markets and discuss how they may evolve in the years ahead. Learn more.
Our recent report explores key takeaways for natural gas markets from the global energy crisis that took place in 2022 and 2023. It explores the anatomy of the crisis, the impact on importing regions, and policy responses. Read the report.
The latest episode of our Everything Energy podcast dives into the growing importance of petrochemicals in global oil markets. In the episode, now available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, we hear from Oil Market Analysts David Martin and Ciarán Healy. They explain what petrochemicals are, how they are produced and the major trends shaping the sector today – including why petrochemicals have emerged as an increasingly significant driver of oil demand. Learn more.
A recent commentary examines the benefits of putting energy efficiency at the heart of Ukraine's recovery, which would result in buildings that are more resilient, comfortable and affordable – and align with the country’s energy goals for the future. Find out more.
China is witnessing rapid growth in distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar PV, battery storage and electric vehicle chargers. Our new report looks at recent trends and provides advice on integrating these technologies into the country’s power systems. Read it here.
A new video looks at how shortages of power cables are delaying global grid expansions. Take a look.
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Despite strong deployment globally, major solar PV and wind manufacturers continue to face financial struggles. Even so, companies’ confidence in renewables remains strong – with investors and buyers benefitting particularly from low solar prices. Most big developers have maintained or raised their 2030 deployment targets from last year. Learn more in our Renewables 2025 report. |
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WHAT WE'RE READING & WATCHING:
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