Welcome back to the Energy Mix and best wishes for 2026. In today's edition: The Kenyan, Norwegian and US governments will co-host our 2nd Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa; the latest outlook for coal; the diverging oil market trends; powering Ireland's energy future; strengthening collaboration with India's energy leaders; new podcast episodes on electricity access and shifting centres of energy gravity; and more.

 

The long-running surge in global oil supply came to an abrupt halt in late 2025 amid significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan and sharp declines from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Even so, global global oil supply is estimated to have risen by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and is forecast to increase by another 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. Meanwhile, amid improving expectations for the global economy and trade, global oil demand is estimated to have grown by over 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and is forecast to rise by a similar amount again this year.

Despite an overall rise in stocks worldwide as growth in supply significantly outpaces demand, inventories in key pricing hubs are near decade lows. Much of the discrepancy is explained by diverging trends in the different markets for crude, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil products – and deteriorating market transparency is clouding some of the picture, too. While crude and NGL markets remain amply supplied, limited spare refining capacity outside of China means we may well see these differing trends persist for some time to come, the report says.

For more, read the December Oil Market Report's Highlights and Overview.

 
Today, Ireland's policymakers and energy sector leaders face a series of strategic choices, with electricity demand set to grow strongly over the next decade. The report – which was launched on the occasion of a meeting between Ireland’s Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment Darragh O'Brien and our Executive Director at our headquarters in Paris – explores how the country can build on recent progress to advance electrification while addressing emerging electricity security risks to safeguard system stability and affordability.

Ireland has also emerged as a global frontrunner in the integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. The new report assesses ways in which Ireland can ensure its electricity sector can evolve to meet rising demand and the country’s long-term energy and climate objectives, while managing new challenges associated with more variable power supply.

Read the press release and the full report.

While in New Delhi, Ms Warlick also met with NITI Aayog Vice Chair Suman Bery and spoke at the World Biogas Association India Congress and a roundtable convened by the IEA and the US-India Business Council. And she signed two Memoranda of Understandings: one with Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure Director General Amit Prothi, committing to deepen joint work that supports energy system resilience, and another with Petroleum Planning and Analysis Director General Manoj Kumar, who leads India's hydrocarbon data and analysis body.

One covers how to deliver electricity access to 600 million people across Africa and what it will take to reach this milestone within a decade, including the financial tools that could unlock essential investment.

The other examines the shifting geography of energy demand – an important trend with major implications for policymakers and the energy sector as a whole. It looks at how energy demand has evolved over the past half-century and how it could change again in the future, with a group of emerging economies poised to take the baton from China in the years ahead.

You can listen to these new episodes now on Apple Podcasts and Spotify – and check out other recent episodes on topics such as the future of solar power and energy security in Ukraine this winter.

After countries pledged two years ago to triple global renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, our recent report provides a stocktake of progress, assessing how national plans – including Nationally Determined Contributions submitted under the Paris Agreement – measure up. Read the report.

Our Executive Director made a special address to over 2,500 high-school students from across Turkey at the YGA Summit in Istanbul in late December. The wide-ranging discussion covered global energy issues as well as personal development and career choices.

Our new commentary examines emerging opportunities for district heating networks in a changing energy landscape, with strong potential for them to help improve system resilience, efficiency and flexibility. Learn more.

Another recent commentary explores how low-temperature heat for factories can be electrified while controlling costs. It finds that hybrid systems have a role to play, and that reducing financial risks is key. Keep reading.

The IEA recently convened the Transport Project Partnership at our headquarters in Paris. The annual meeting brought together around 40 transport experts and stakeholders to discuss issues shaping the sector. Learn more in our news article.

Now, looking ahead, energy market dynamics are set to be increasingly shaped by a group of emerging economies, led by India and Southeast Asia and joined by countries in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Collectively, they take up the baton from China – although no country alone comes close to replicating China’s impacts on energy markets. Learn more in our World Energy Outlook 2025 – and dig deeper in our recent podcast episode on the new geography of energy demand.

18-19 February: IEA Ministerial Meeting

Mid-2026: 2nd IEA Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa